Similar to team sports like football, cycling now has a promotion and relegation system. These moves are based upon UCI points, a scoring system determined by race results throughout the pro season. If you’re within the top 15 women’s teams in the world after the two-year window, you receive a licence to the WorldTour and guaranteed entry to its top-level race calendar.
2025 is the final year of the current UCI points cycle for the women’s peloton. After fighting for points over the past season, the fate of the Women’s WorldTour from 2026 will be fought out during the upcoming season. With a handful of teams separated by just one stand-out race result, the 2025 road season may see riders scrapping for points like it’s the Championship play-off final. To make things more important, after this year the Women’s WorldTour cycle will move to three years to align with the men.
Now that we’re at the beginning of the 2025 season, let’s check up on how the points stack up and see who is safe and who could be in danger during this all-important relegation year.
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The current state of affairs
Unlike the men’s WorldTour, the women’s sport is currently on a shorter two-year cycle, creating a much tighter and more volatile battle than the men’s equivalent. Combining the UCI points scored in 2024 and the upcoming 2025 season, these accumulated scores will determine who will fill the 15 available slots in the WorldTour. After that, it will align with the men’s cycle and become three years between promotions and relegations.
The following graph maps out the current standings ahead of the 2025 season. This chart shows the total points scored by the 23 best-performing teams in the UCI rankings throughout 2024.
At the halfway marker in this cycle, 13 of the 15 top spots in the UCI rankings – to the left of the dotted ‘relegation line’ – are occupied by current WorldTour teams. Two WorldTour teams already sit in the relegation zone: Uno X and Roland. Their places have as it stands been taken by EF-Oatly-Cannondale and VolkerWessels.
At first glance, the teams towards the left of the chart should feel confident about their chances. SD Worx, Lidl-Trek, Canyon-SRAM, Pinic-PostNL, UAE Team ADQ, Visma-Lease a Bike and FDJ-Suez should have no trouble staying at the WorldTour level. Liv-AlUla-Jayco, Movistar and Fenix-Deceuninck also have enough talent and pedigree to see them through to 2026. They also gained a fair advantage over the trailing teams in the ranking.
While 2024 has already dished out 50% of the points available in this cycle, the gap between 13th place Human Powered Health and Uno X in 16th is just 300 points. This is the equivalent of a podium finish at a WorldTour Classic. Although the gaps are tight, a small ring of teams share a similar amount total (around 4,000) on either side of the relegation zone.
Based on this and previous years’ performances, six teams hover around the relegation/promotion zone: EF-Oatly-Cannondale, AG Insurance-Soudal, Human Powered Health, Uno X, Roland and VolkerWessels. Only four of these teams will make the cut and receive WorldTour licences in 2026.
Having identified the six fighting for WorldTour status, we’ll dive in and use statistics, past performances and team rosters to predict who could be considered WorldTour candidates in 2026. To boot, we’re using the help of a logarithm to predict how many points each team will score in 2025 based on results and trends from the past three seasons.
The teams fighting for future WorldTour spots
EF-Oatly-Cannondale
EF-Oatly-Cannondale were technically a new team in 2024, despite there being an EF women's team with a many of the same riders and the same look in the years prior, so they had to begin their new life as a second tier team. In 2025, however, the team can be optimistic about their chances of jumping up to the top division come January next year.
EF finished comfortably inside the top 15 in 2024 so it looks like the team are safe despite their current Continental status – although this is more in name than in practice as they already get invited to the top races.
Our logarithmic estimate – in which we've included the previous EF team given the riders are mostly the same – is optimistic too, forecasting a points tally over the 5,000-point marker in 2025. This checks out when factoring in the team's new signings and big ambitions. Cédrine Kerbaol has jumped on board, giving them another card to play in the Classics and Grand Tours. Adding in the Olympic Champion Kristen Faulkner, 2023 Paris-Roubaix victor Alison Jackson and the steady all-rounder Noemi Rüegg, EF-Oatly-Cannondale might be able to crack even the top ten of the UCI rankings in 2025.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 80%
AG Insurance-Soudal
AG Insurance-Soudal stepped up to the WorldTour in 2023 when the squad formally merged with the men's QuickStep team. Despite their non-WorldTour status during 2022, the team survived the last relegation cycle with relative ease. This time around it might be a little more difficult for the Belgian squad.
Sitting in 14th place in the UCI rankings after 2024, AG Insurance-Soudal are surprisingly close to the drop zone for a team that won multiple Grand Tour stages and bagged the polka-dot jersey at the Tour de France last year. Looking at the team's performances from 2022 onwards, however, they're on an upward trajectory, with our model estimating a points haul somewhere around the 4,300-point barrier during 2025. This combined with their 2024 score should be enough to secure the team another couple of years in the WorldTour.
In terms of achieving this goal of 4,000 points in 2025, the team will be hoping for Justine Ghekiere to follow up on her standout Grand Tour campaign in 2024. On the other hand, Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio, a big points scorer from 2023, will need to come back to her best after a performance slump in 2024 to help steer the team towards a stable future in 2025.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 70%
Human Powered Health
Human Powered Health have been lingering towards the bottom half of the table for a while. However, looking at their data over the past three seasons, the American team have been on a steady upward trajectory (at least when it comes to points). They were inside the top 15 of the UCI ranking in both 2023 and 2024, but only just, finishing the 2024 season in 13th place.
The team's new signing Thalita De Jong could help them fend off relegation. She had a stellar 2024 at Lotto, hoovering up UCI points at stage races with the Belgian team, making it inside the top ten overall at the Tour de France Femmes to top it all off. If their trendline (shown on the chart in black) is anything to go by, Human Powered Health could tally anywhere between 4,000 to 5,000 points in the 2025 calendar. This, in theory, should be enough to keep them in the WorldTour for another two years.
The girls in orange and purple might not be at the front of the peloton all the time, but they often find a way to sneak through. Their consistency and reliability might be the key to another WorldTour stint in 2026 and 2027.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 70%
Uno X
The newest team on the WorldTour, Uno X have lingered towards the bottom of the WorldTour rankings over the past two seasons. They survived relegation by the skin of their teeth at the end of 2023 when the last cycle concluded, finishing just above the drop zone in 15th place. Their luck might be running out, however, as the Norwegian team slipped into the drop zone in 2024.
The team lacks a headline name and have rarely featured at the pointy end of big races. They have tried to rectify this with the signing of former-Jayco rider Ingvild Gåskjenn to support sprints and Classics chances after her breakthrough spring last year. They might have to rely on young talents coming through as well, notably Finnish prodigy Anniina Ahtosalo, who showed good strength in sprints and one-day races in 2024. They've played a good strategy before, targeting high-scoring one-day races across all levels of the calendar. This expertise might come in handy, particularly in fending off Roland who have often struggled at this.
Despite the team's downfall in the UCI rankings, their points have increased from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating some sort of an upward trend. In response, the logarithmic estimation for Uno X sits at around 4,000 points in 2025. This could be enough to keep them in the WorldTour, but it's hit or miss.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 50%
Roland
Swiss-registered team Roland made the move onto the WorldTour in 2022. Under the Israel-Premier Tech Roland name in 2023, they enjoyed their best season to date, finishing 11th in the UCI rankings that year. Unfortunately, their results haven't improved since then and they now sit in the relegation zone.
Roland is the only team on this list not to improve on their points tally from 2023 during the 2024 season. With this, our logarithm projects Roland to score just over 3,000 points in 2025. In other words, this model forecasts either stagnation or a downturn in UCI points in 2025. The Swiss outfit is the only candidate to receive a negative result from this model.
Given their recent transfer activity, we can have more certainty over this figure. The team haven't brought in many riders to help rake in points and secure WorldTour survival, instead betting on a similar roster to 2024 ahead of the new calendar. As of the time of publication, the team have only 11 riders contracted for 2025. This might make it tough to spread their resources around to score points. Given that the team's top ten riders ranked riders are counted in the UCI standings, every rider will need to play their part in securing a WorldTour future.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 30%
VolkerWessels
The team formerly known as Parkhotel Valkenburg has nursed talents including Demi Vollering and Lorena Wiebes to stardom, but last year the renamed VolkerWessels finished the 2024 season ranked in 15th place. With this, they could be on track for a promotion at the end of 2025.
Although the team didn't appear at either Tour de France Femmes or Paris-Roubaix last year, the Dutch squad have been a consistent force in the UCI rankings. They missed out on promotion at the end of 2023 by a matter of 500 points, finishing just below the cut-off in 16th place. This time around, they have a good chance of making the cut if things go to plan.
Our chart produces some promising predictions for VolkerWessels, with returns over 5,000 points, however, the result is somewhat untrustworthy given the fluctuation in results over the past few years. It's tough, therefore, to safely forecast the Dutch team's fate.
VolkerWessels may benefit from their ProTeam status. While they avoid the Tour de France Femmes, they can spread their resources out and score lucrative results in points-efficient one-day races. Although the Tour is the biggest race on the women's calendar, finishing on the podium at a little-known Belgian Classic race can yield more points than a stage victory at the Grande Boucle. To add, the squad's 19-strong roster will help in terms of manpower during the 2025 season, something that some of their rivals lack.
VolkerWessels could make the leap up, however the team didn't plan to search out a WorldTour spot. The team has expressed no desire for promotion, so it's unknown whether they'd accept the UCI's invite into the top division if they make the cut.
Chance of being in the WorldTour next year: 40%
Cyclist's Prediction
Looking at the results of the past seasons, signings and our graphs, we now need to put our necks on the line and make a prediction.
Let's start with the safest promotion pick: EF-Oatly-Cannondale. Combining their 2024 points haul and our projected tally for 2025, the American squad safely make the cut. In a similar position, but not quite as safe, sit Human Powered Health and AG Insurance who are projected to make it through onto the WorldTour with a small gap over their competitors. Both teams have brought in some solid talent to help their chances in 2025 and they survived similarly tight battles towards the end of the 2023 season.
Uno X, Roland and VolkerWessels are, therefore, left to fight for the final WorldTour licence. It's all to play for, but Uno X are in the most comfortable position. They're quietly consistent and know how to play the points-scoring game. Roland, however, suffered a major slump in 2024 and it doesn't look like that's going to change in 2025, especially with it already confirmed they'll be sitting out some major races this year. As for VolkerWessels, it's anyone's guess. If they're cunning in smaller stage races, they might be able to outgun Roland and Uno X on UCI points. Promotion was never their plan, so it'll be interesting to see whether they embrace their positions as the wildcards in this battle or whether they're content to stay in the second tier.
